We need a QB with a strong chance of throwing at least 37 TDs to even consider him, and we’ll need a shot at north of 40 to pick a winner. We also obviously added a 17th game last year, too. Passing volume and scoring took a huge leap in 2018 and continues to rise. That mirrored 2021, when Rodgers led the league with 48 while five guys threw 37-plus and three hit 40. Chris Raybon & Gilles Gallantīrady led the league with 43 last year, but six QBs threw at least 37 touchdowns and two crossed 40. As always, it’s all about the value at the number.īe sure to check out the other season leader bets if you haven’t already: We’ll start by considering the favorites, then run through other names of note. We need to imagine a best case scenario, how likely it is and see where the betting value lies. There’s only one season leader, so median outcome is of no use. We can’t predict random outliers, but we can use coaching schemes, passing attempts, and TD% to dig into the numbers. No surprise that he also leapt from 26 to 48 TDs, leading the league and winning MVP along the way. In 2021, he started the year with an excellent 6.0% career TD%, but spiked to a career-best 9.1% - a massive increase. Quarterback TD rates - TDs per pass attempt (TD%) - are relatively stable over a long career, but it’s very normal for random season-long spikes to occur. Compare that to last season when nine different QBs threw 33 or more TDs and you see the league’s passing explosion.
#Tom brady touchdown passes tonight full#
His first time winning the crown was a full two decades ago in 2002 when he led the league with 28 TDs. It was the fifth time in Brady’s illustrious career that he’s been TD king. Tom Brady led the league last season with 43 TDs, just over 2.5 per game.
Who will lead the NFL in passing touchdowns in 2022?
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